Costly Consequences: The Impact of Exiting the FGFA Program Without a Solid Backup Plan on the Indian Air Force
India's choice to withdraw from the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) initiative with Russia, a collaborative effort aimed at co-developing and producing approximately 144 state-of-the-art stealth jets for the Indian Air Force (IAF), has resulted in significant repercussions. Although the decision was influenced by various factors, including delays, financial concerns, and disagreements regarding technology transfer, the lack of a solid alternative plan has created a considerable void in the IAF's modernization strategy and its capacity to sustain squadron strength.
This decision, which may have appeared strategically sound at the time, now seems ill-advised in retrospect, given the urgent need to replace outdated fleets and ensure the IAF can meet future operational demands.
The FGFA program, based on Russia's Su-57 platform, was intended to address India's long-term fighter requirements. The plan involved co-developing a variant of the Su-57 tailored to Indian specifications, with a target of producing 144 units of these fifth-generation stealth fighters. This would have greatly enhanced the IAF's capabilities by introducing stealth technology, advanced avionics, supercruise capabilities, and improved survivability into India's aerial combat arsenal.
However, in 2018, the Indian government decided to withdraw from the program, citing concerns about the project's timeline, perceived technological shortcomings, and rising costs. At that time, India raised questions about whether the Su-57 truly qualified as a fifth-generation aircraft and expressed doubts about Russia's commitment to transferring critical technologies. While these concerns were likely legitimate, the decision did not coincide with an immediate backup plan to acquire a comparable class of aircraft for the IAF.
One of the immediate effects of exiting the FGFA program has been its impact on the IAF's squadron strength. The Indian Air Force is facing immense pressure as older jets like the MiG-21 and MiG-27 are being retired rapidly. Initially, the plan included procuring 114 units of the FGFA to complement 114 units of the Medium Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) to bridge the gap left by these aging platforms. Together, these acquisitions were meant to ensure that India maintained the requisite 42 fighter squadrons to address challenges posed by both China and Pakistan.
Currently, the IAF's fighter squadron strength is critically low, hovering around 30-31 squadrons, well below the sanctioned strength of 42. The retirement of the MiG-21 Bison and MiG-27 fleets—aircraft that had been mainstays of the IAF for decades—has created a substantial gap that was expected to be filled by a mix of new 4.5 and fifth-generation fighters. The FGFA program was a central element of this plan.
The delay in replacing these aircraft has placed additional strain on the Su-30MKI fleet, which now bears the bulk of India's air combat responsibilities. Although the Su-30MKI is a formidable aircraft, it is aging and will soon require mid-life upgrades. The absence of the FGFA means that the IAF lacks any stealth aircraft in its fleet, leaving it without a true fifth-generation fighter capable of countering modern threats such as China’s J-20 and other advanced platforms.
The Indian government had hoped that alternative programs, such as the MRFA (Medium Role Fighter Aircraft) and the indigenous AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft), would soon fill the gap. The MRFA program seeks to procure 114 4.5-generation fighters, while the AMCA is intended to be India’s first domestically developed fifth-generation fighter.
Regrettably, both programs have encountered delays. The MRFA program, which was initially designed to supplement the FGFA by introducing 4.5-generation fighters, has experienced sluggish progress in procurement and evaluation. At the same time, the AMCA program, aimed at developing India’s first indigenous fifth-generation fighter, remains in the early stages and is not expected to be operational until 2035.
The absence of immediate replacements for retiring aircraft is exacerbating the situation, as the IAF finds itself increasingly stretched in terms of operational capabilities.
India’s exit from the FGFA program also carries broader strategic ramifications. China, India's primary regional adversary, has already introduced its J-20 stealth fighter, giving the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) a significant technological advantage in air combat capabilities. While there are ongoing debates about the J-20’s true fifth-generation status, its deployment nonetheless shifts the balance of power in the region.
In contrast, the IAF's current fighter fleet primarily consists of 4th and 4.5-generation aircraft, with no genuine fifth-generation platform on the horizon. While the Rafale and Su-30MKI are capable fighters, they lack the stealth and advanced systems that modern warfare may demand, which could create vulnerabilities for the IAF, especially in contested airspace.
India's decision to withdraw from the FGFA program with Russia may have been driven by valid concerns; however, the absence of a robust alternative plan has placed the IAF in a precarious position. The retirement of the MiG-21 and MiG-27 fleets, combined with delays in the MRFA and AMCA initiatives, has considerably diminished the IAF's squadron strength. Moreover, the pressure on the Su-30MKI fleet continues to mount, as it now serves as the primary frontline fighter for the majority of missions.
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