HomeGlobal Defence UpdatesIsrael-Hamas war: Iran's nuclear policy of pressure and talks likely to go...

Israel-Hamas war: Iran’s nuclear policy of pressure and talks likely to go on even after president’s death

msid 110316897,imgsize

While Iran’s nuclear program stands at the precipice of tipping over into enriching uranium at weapons-grade levels, Tehran has held quiet, indirect talks with the United States and invited the head of the United Nations’ atomic watchdog into the country for negotiations.

While seemingly contradictory, the move follows Iran’s strategy since the collapse of its nuclear deal with world powers after then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018. Tehran is attempting to exert its own version of Trump’s “maximum pressure” on the international community to see the economic sanctions that have crippled the country’s economy and currency lifted in exchange for slowing down its program.

The Islamic Republic also appears to be trying to contain the risk it faces from the U.S. after launching an unprecedented attack on Israel amid its war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The assault – a response to a suspected Israeli strike on April 1 which killed two Guard generals and others in Damascus, Syria – has pushed a yearslong shadow war between Israel and Tehran out into the open.

All this is unlikely to change for the time being, even with the helicopter crash Sunday that killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and other officials on a foggy mountain. That’s largely due to the fact that all matters of state rest with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Khamenei, 85, has led Iran since 1989 as only its second supreme leader since the country’s Islamic Revolution. Under Khamenei, Iran has seesawed between subtle outreach to outright hostility with the U.S. and other Western powers.

Those cycles include reformist President Mohammad Khatami’s ” Dialogue Among Civilizations ” efforts that hit a wall as the U.S. suffered the Sept. 11 attacks in 2001 and soon began its decadeslong wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – who came to power in 2005 – cheered the country’s nuclear program and defied the West. Relatively moderate President Hassan Rouhani ultimately got the 2015 nuclear deal across the line, ending sanctions for greatly limiting its atomic program. Then came the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal. Iran in the waning days of the Rouhani administration began a series of attacks targeting shipping in the Middle East while dialing down its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.’s watchdog. It ultimately began enriching uranium up to 60% purity – a step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. Then Raisi, a protege of Khamenei, won the 2021 presidential election in a vote that saw his main rivals barred from running and a record-low turnout for the race. Those policies continued – as did Iran’s support for regional militias like Yemen’s Houthi rebels, now attacking ships moving through the Red Sea over the Israel-Hamas war. Those groups have long provided Iran with a means to challenge its regional archenemy Israel, as well as the U.S., without a direct military confrontation.

Through all of this turmoil, the one constant has been Khamenei. As the supreme leader, he’s further empowered the country’s Revolutionary Guard, whose all-volunteer Basij forces have been crucial in putting down widespread protests that have struck the nation in recent years. And by ensuring Raisi’s election, he narrowed the country’s political field to only hard-liners who have embraced that policy of pressure.

The Israel-Hamas war, as well as the risk of it expanding into a regional confrontation, has changed some of this calculus, however. The survival of the “nezam,” or “system” as Iran’s Shiite theocracy is known, remains the paramount concern. The risk of open warfare, as well as the economic pressure squeezing Iran and its people, have made efforts to try to restart the diplomacy – or at least alleviate the risk of things getting even worse – that much more important.

The late Amirabdollahian, as well as the country’s now-acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani, had been fierce critics of the negotiations as run under the Rouhani administration. But in the time since, they moved to reach a detente with Saudi Arabia last year. Then they’ve continued indirect talks with the U.S. in Oman, a sultanate on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula that’s been a key interlocutor between Tehran and the West.

The full extent of the talks remains unclear, as does what will come from them. However, Iran even reached out to the U.S. government after the helicopter crash for assistance, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told journalists Monday.

“We did make clear to them that we would offer assistance, as we would do in response to any request by a foreign government in this sort of situation,” he said. “Ultimately, largely for logistical reasons, we weren’t able to provide that assistance.”

That help was finding the crash site, The Washington Post reported. And such an ask wouldn’t have come without Khamenei’s approval.

RELATED ARTICLES

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Aatmanirbhar Bharat

All

Defence Ministry set to clear โ‚น70,000 crore frigates’ order

New Delhi: The defence ministry is set to clear a mega โ‚น70,000 crore order for new warships for the Indian Navy. The stealth frigates...

Zen Technologies launches AI-powered robot for global defense market

Zen Technologies, an anti-drone technology and defence training solutions provider, in collaboration with its subsidiary AI Turing Technologies on Monday introduced AI-powered robot Prahasta,...

AMCA 5th Generation Stealth Fighter Updates

AMCA to be integrated with sophisticated indigenous Distributed Aperture System (DAS) that making it a formidable air asset for the Indian Air Force

Source : IgMp Bureau Indiaโ€™s Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is on the brink of a revolutionary transformation with the integration of a sophisticated Distributed...

AMCA to incorporate the best features of both 5th and 6th Generation fighters: ADA sources

Source : IgMp Bureau India's strides toward indigenous air dominance receive a substantial boost with the green signal for the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA)...

Most Popular

Recent Comments

Archive Months

Miscellanous

Hyderabad-based Indian Startup Redon Systems successfully completes full field test of Achuk tube launch loitering munition

Source : IgMp Bureau In a groundbreaking achievement, Hyderabad-based Indian startup Redon Systems has recently concluded a comprehensive field test for its Achuk tube-launched loitering...

โ€˜Sky Forceโ€™: Akshay Kumar brings untold true story of Indiaโ€™s first and deadliest air strike

https://www.defencenews.in/2023/10/sky-force-akshay-kumar-brings-untold-true-story-of-indias-first-and-deadliest-air-strike/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.defencenews.in%2F2023%2F10%2Fsky-force-akshay-kumar-brings-untold-true-story-of-indias-first-and-deadliest-air-strike%2F Finally the wait is over as actor Akshay Kumar on the occasion of the birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi and former Prime Minister...

s jaishankar: EAM S Jaishankar holds discussions with Belarusian Foreign Minister on defence partnership

New Delhi: External Foreign Minister S Jaishankar on Tuesday held discussions with Belarusian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Aleinik on bilateral ties including development...

Collapsing buildings, incoming missiles : Taiwan rehearses a Chinese assault on its cities

Source : The Guardian Collapsing buildings, incoming missiles : Taiwan rehearses a Chinese assault on its cities On a Thursday afternoon in Taipei, it was 26...
Visits
error: Content is protected !!