China has its limitations. It has brokered a ceasefire deal among warring parties in January but it wants to remain one of the most influential stakeholders in Myanmar’s political crisis. However observers feel that it is time for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to play a bigger role in mediation efforts only.
Raising doubts over China’s real intention. Dr. Brian Wong of the University of Hong Kong insisted on the need of a coordinated approach involving ASEAN, particularly Thailand, to foster sustainable peace in the region. Also observers have cautioned against viewing China’s role in brokering a ceasefire deal among warring factions in January, through a unilateral lens.
Thailand has called for the regional bloc ASEAN to take a more proactive role in trying to resolve crisis in the military-ruled Myanmar, after weeks of fighting near its border that halted trade and led to a brief influx of refugees. In past, ASEAN’s attempts at mediating Myanmar’s crisis have faced significant hurdles, with the junta’s reluctance to adhere to the Five-Point Consensus undermining peace efforts. Amid this impasse, Thailand’s new administration under Prime Minister SretthaThavisin signalled a potential shift towards a more proactive diplomatic stance.
Dr. Wong underscored the importance of Thailand’s role as a mediator, given its historical ties with Myanmar. Thailand’s move is unlikely to please China which wants to be the sole mediator because of its vested interest in Myanmar.
It may be noted that ASEAN, the bloc of 10 Southeast Asian nations that operates on the principle of consensus and noninterference of sovereignty, continued to be divided over dealing with China’s aggressive behavior in the disputed waters and seeking support from non-ASEAN partners. Experts said that China may not be comfortable because of its differences with several ASEAN countries on South China Sea issue.The ASEAN had came up with a peace plan in 2021 that Myanmar’s generals agreed to, but it has only been partially implemented, causing fissures in the bloc and frustration from its most prominent members.”We would like to see a more proactive ASEAN,” Thai Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nikorndej Balankura said. Recently, Thailand proposed an ASEAN meeting on the said issue that would include previous chair Indonesia, which had sought to engage the junta’s rivals, plus Laos, and next year’s chair, Malaysia.
Meanwhile, Thailand’s new administration under Prime Minister SretthaThavisin has given a signal of a potential shift towards a more proactive diplomatic stance. Dr. Wong too underscored the importance of Thailand’s role as a mediator, given its historical ties with Myanmar. Observers said that with a change in governments in Thailand and the Philippines, and with Malaysia assuming the ASEAN chair next year, negotiations focused on independence for ethnic states could be possible but would not include the military. “ASEAN can deliver results that could stabilize the situation in Myanmar by sending in some form of peacekeeping force and holding the military junta to account — and to help reestablish democratic rule which is supposed to be part of their own ASEAN Charter,” said Ross Milosevic, a risk consultant who conducts field research in Myanmar.
ASEAN’s move is unlikely to be appreciated by China. Dr. James Wren of the Royal Academy of Cambodia’s International Relations Institute noted that China’s preference for stability, steering clear of overt support for anti-junta activities was a reflection of China’s strategic imperative to minimize friction while asserting its sole influence in Myanmar’s internal affairs.
The US Institute for Peace report stated that by facilitating negotiations and exerting leverage over armed factions, China wants to consolidate its influence while containing instability along its border.
