SOURCE: AFI

As Bangladesh faces increasing international pressure and potential sanctions from Western countries, its dependence on regional giants India and China is on the rise, according to a recent report by the International Crisis Group. The report highlights the implications of this growing reliance and the challenges that lie ahead for the country.

The report points out that Bangladesh’s government could face sanctions, such as visa bans on top officials, from the United States and other Western nations. This pressure from the international community stems from various concerns, including political and human rights issues within Bangladesh.

Impact on Bangladesh:

1. Increased Dependence on India and China: With the looming possibility of sanctions, Bangladesh is expected to turn to its neighbors, India and China, for support and cooperation. These two regional powerhouses have been pivotal in Bangladesh’s economic and strategic landscape.
2. Political Dynamics: The political landscape within Bangladesh is already marked by tension and rivalry. The report notes that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has declared a movement to topple the government, while the ruling Awami League is determined to maintain its position. This political standoff could lead to a more polarized society.
3. Potential for Disputed Election: The report underscores the possibility of a fiercely contested election in January 2024. The ruling Awami League is unlikely to heed calls for a caretaker government to oversee the election, further exacerbating political tensions.
4. Threat of Violence: As election-related activities intensify, there is a risk of violence erupting. Campaigning and voting could become flashpoints for attacks, and civil unrest might extend from India’s restive northeastern states.
5. Rise of Extremism: The report also highlights the potential for Islamist groups to become more active in opposing the government. In the face of a disputed poll, the opposition might choose to boycott the election and adopt more radical and potentially violent tactics.
6. Rohingya Crisis: The ongoing Rohingya crisis, coupled with a lack of hope, security, and economic opportunities, poses a significant challenge. Desperate Rohingya individuals, particularly young men, may turn to criminal gangs and armed groups, exacerbating the existing violence and instability.