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| Live-fire drill using an aircraft carrier in Bohai sea, China. (Photo Source: Reuters) |
Beijing: China’s naval exercises and airspace violations in the East and South China sea are to meet domestic challenges by appeasing the hyper nationalists as the 20th party Congress is fast approaching and Chinese President Xi Jinping is eyeing to secure a third term, however, in reality, Beijing will fall short of an attack on the island nation, media reports said.
If Beijing were to invade Taiwan, China would need to mobilize 1.2 million soldiers in Taiwan through ships to counter the 4,50,000 military personnel in Taiwan, experts say. This will exert heavy pressure on the Chinese navy and aggravate military attrition.
On political and economic grounds, Beijing will find it very difficult to go to war. Chinese President Xi Jinping is facing massive criticism at home for mishandling the COVID-19 pandemic, mortgage boycotts, and loss of livelihood. People are protesting on the ground and venting their anger on social media as the distress grows.
So it appears Xi may keep using military threats through military drills to soothe the hyper nationalists at home. He is using Nancy Pelosi’s visit as an excuse to escalate tensions but would stop short of an attack on Taiwan.
The Chinese President wants to set a larger than life image for himself and portray himself as a strong leader in front of the Chinese people. To achieve this objective, China is using its military might and encircling Taiwan to intimidate the island nation.
This comes as US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan even after Beijing repeatedly used its wolf-warrior diplomacy to try and stop her. However, Pelosi did go and China sought the use of symbolic gesture to vent its anger and to be seen as determined about the annexation of Taiwan.
However, as the anticipation lingers on, it seems like China will not attack Taiwan, reported Global Strat View. There are multiple reasons why China will not go down that way. China’s economy is already witnessing a downturn and any military adventures in the Taiwanese Strait will further worsen the situation.
Furthermore, China will also catch international attention if it does try to invade Taiwan. This is because there is already a war going on in Eastern Europe and the countries who are condemning the Ukraine war will not take much time to criticize Beijing in playing out the same moves in Taiwan.
Taiwan drew a parallel and felt that when Russia invaded Ukraine no country intervened so will US support the island nation in case China invaded. In a survey conducted by Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, only 35 per cent believed the US would come to Taiwan’s rescue. In such a backdrop, Pelosi’s visit brings much-needed assurance to the Taiwanese people and boosts their morale.
Pelosi has been a vocal critic of China’s human rights abuses. In 1991, she had unrolled a banner at Tiananmen Square, which read “To those who died for democracy in China.”
In addition, the abrupt retreat from Afghanistan tainted the US image as a reliable partner. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act states, “the United States will make available to Taiwan such defence articles and defence services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defence capabilities” and “shall maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan.” But it is not binding.
However, it must be noted that a 2021 Pentagon report on China read, “An attempt to invade Taiwan would likely strain PRC’s (Chinese) armed forces and invite international intervention.”
