The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, while undoubtedly concerning, is unlikely to have an immediate impact on India’s military hardware and spare parts supplies. Several government officials have emphasized that any potential impact would only arise if the conflict escalates into a long-drawn war, similar to the situation between Russia and Ukraine. It’s essential to explore the dynamics of this situation and its implications for India’s arms imports.
India has emerged as a crucial player in the global arms trade, ranking among the top arms importers globally. According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India was the largest arms export market for countries like Russia, France, and Israel between 2018 and 2022. Notably, around 37% of Israel’s arms exports were directed towards India during this period.
Closely Monitoring the Israel-Hamas Conflict
Indian defense officials are closely monitoring the situation in Israel to assess any potential implications for India’s arms supplies. However, they stress that a limited impact is likely, unless the Israel-Hamas conflict extends into a prolonged engagement. In such a scenario, Israel may divert its weapons and equipment stocks to sustain its own long-drawn conflict, affecting its ability to supply other nations.
Learnings from Russia-Ukraine Conflict
The situation in Russia offers valuable insights into how a prolonged conflict can disrupt arms supplies. In the case of India’s arms imports from Russia, the conflict in Ukraine was not the sole reason for supply disruptions. In 2017, Russia faced the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which placed limitations on certain arms transactions. Subsequently, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict unfolded, the imposition of more stringent economic sanctions from Western countries further constrained Russian supplies.
Conclusion
While the Israel-Hamas conflict remains a significant concern, its immediate impact on India’s military hardware and spare parts supplies is expected to be minimal. India’s role as a substantial arms importer has provided it with a diverse network of suppliers, reducing its vulnerability to disruptions in any one source. Nevertheless, the Indian government is closely monitoring the situation and will be prepared to adapt its strategies should the conflict between Israel and Hamas significantly affect the global arms market.
AFI
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