China has played a crucial role in aiding Pakistan’s military modernization. The JF-17 Thunder, developed jointly by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation, is poised to take over from the aging Mirage III and V aircraft in Pakistan’s air force. With over 130 operational JF-17s, this partnership underscores the deepening defense cooperation between the two countries.
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FAS Confirms Nuclear-Capable Ra’ad-I Missile on JF-17
The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) analyzed the image and confirmed the missile as a Ra’ad-I, Pakistan’s sole nuclear-capable ALCM. “Notably, this was the first time such a configuration had been observed in public,” stated the FAS report. The identification was made by comparing the missile’s ‘twin-tail’ design to the Ra’ad-II’s ‘x-shaped’ tail, introduced in 2017.
Detailed Analysis and Comparisons
The FAS conducted a thorough comparison with previous versions of the Ra’ad missiles displayed in Pakistan Day Parades from 2017 to 2024. Using Photoshop’s Vanishing Point feature, they measured the length of the missiles at approximately 4.9 meters. This measurement, along with the tail fin configuration, confirmed that the missile on the JF-17 is likely a Ra’ad-I rather than the newer Ra’ad-II or the conventional anti-ship variant, Taimoor. The report by Eliana Johns of FAS provided detailed insights into these findings.
Ra’ad-I vs Ra’ad-II
To ascertain the specific missile type, experts compared the observed Ra’ad configuration with past displays of Ra’ad-I and Ra’ad-II missiles. Notably, the Ra’ad-I features a ‘twin-tail’ design, distinct from the ‘x-shaped’ tail fin introduced with the Ra’ad-II in recent years. Using advanced tools like Photoshop’s Vanishing Point, analysts estimated the Ra’ad missile’s length at approximately 4.9 meters, consistent with previous Ra’ad-I specifications. This finding, combined with the tail fin configuration, strongly suggests the deployment of the Ra’ad-I ALCM on the JF-17 Thunder Block II.
Role of China in Pakistan’s Military Advancements
China has played a crucial role in aiding Pakistan’s military modernization. The JF-17 Thunder, developed jointly by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation, is poised to take over from the aging Mirage III and V aircraft in Pakistan’s air force. With over 130 operational JF-17s, this partnership underscores the deepening defense cooperation between the two countries.
Strategic Shift and Modernization
The integration of the Ra’ad-I on the JF-17 represents a significant strategic enhancement for Pakistan. For years, Pakistan has relied on its Mirage aircraft for nuclear strike roles. However, budget constraints have forced Pakistan to repair and upgrade these aging planes. The induction of the JF-17, equipped with Ra’ad-I missiles, is expected to replace the Mirage aircraft and bolster Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence capabilities.
Regional Implications and Impact on India
This development comes amidst a broader nuclear arms competition in South Asia involving India, China, and Pakistan. As India inducts Rafale jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons and advances its missile technology with MIRVs on Agni-P and Agni-5 missiles, Pakistan’s enhancements with the JF-17 and Ra’ad-I underscore the intensifying arms race. The heightened tensions and development of short-range, lower-yield nuclear-capable systems by Pakistan raise concerns about regional stability and the potential for escalation in a conflict with India.
China and Pakistan have been cooperating in matters of defense. Additionally, Pakistan is developing other short-range, lower-yield nuclear-capable systems like the NASR (Hatf-9) ballistic missile, aimed at countering conventional military threats from India below the strategic nuclear level. These advancements, coupled with heightened regional tensions, raise concerns about an accelerated arms race and the potential for escalation in a conflict between India and Pakistan.
Islamabad currently holds 170 nuclear warheads as of 2024, and its nuclear warheads are stored separately from its missiles, assembling them only when necessary. This means that even if JF-17 jets are equipped with Ra’ad missiles, they are unlikely to carry nuclear warheads during patrols.
Pakistan’s nuclear posture remains focused on countering India’s conventional and nuclear capabilities. Unlike India, which has declared a No First Use policy, Pakistan emphasizes smaller, tactical nuclear weapons to counter India’s superior conventional forces. Pakistan’s warhead designs primarily use highly enriched uranium (HEU), produced at facilities in Kahuta and Gadwal, Punjab.
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The revelation of the JF-17 Thunder Block II’s nuclear capabilities, supported by China, highlights Pakistan’s strategic shift in modernizing its air force. The integration of Ra’ad-I missiles signifies a significant enhancement in Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence, impacting the regional power balance. As South Asia witnesses an accelerated arms race, the implications for regional stability and potential conflict escalation remain critical concerns.
(With inputs from Agencies)
