SOURCE: TAIWAN NEWS
A Taiwanese defense expert spoke with Taiwan News on Thursday (Oct. 5) on his assessment of the conditions for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the potential for a growing India-Taiwan alliance, and the role Taiwan’s new submarine can play in defending the country.
Dr. Shen Ming-shih (???) is the acting deputy CEO for research at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), a Taiwanese think tank based in Taipei. During the interview, Shen assessed the efficacy of China’s use of civilian ferries for amphibious landings, the rationale for recent large-scale aerial exercises, the future for military cooperation between India and Taiwan, tactics Taiwan’s new submarine can employ against China’s Navy, conditions for a Chinese invasion, and ways Taiwan can prepare for a blockade.
When asked to comment on reports that China was using civilian ferries to conduct amphibious landings late last month, Shen confirmed that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has commandeered civilian vessels due to a shortage of military amphibious landing ships. However, Shen described these civilian vessels as “very weak” and vulnerable to attack from Taiwan’s F-16s, warships, and submarines.
Amid what appeared to be mixed signals with the PLA sending a record 103 warplanes around Taiwan on the heels of talks between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (??) and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Shen said that the two events were not likely to be directly related. Shen stated that the massive air force maneuvers were likely meant to complement the aforementioned People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) amphibious exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
Regarding the potential for increased military ties between India and Taiwan, Shen listed three reasons why defense cooperation between the two countries will rise. First, Shen said that they are natural allies because they both consider China an enemy and in the event of a war, they could conceivably force the PLA to fight on two fronts.
Second, said that the U.S. and other democratic countries are forming an alliance of democracies, and if India becomes an active member, the collective pressure applied by member nations could potentially deter Chinese military action in the Taiwan Strait. Third, Taiwan can provide India with more expertise on the inner workings of the PLA and can provide instruction in areas such as military Mandarin.
As to whether Taiwan’s new domestically-built submarine will change China’s calculus about an invasion of Taiwan, Shen said that one submarine alone will not make a significant difference, but it marks a major achievement and if more can be built, they can be used to help thwart a PLA invasion. Shen said that Taiwanese submarines could join with U.S. and Japanese forces in taking out Chinese aircraft carriers.
The expert said that they could be used to lay mines at Chinese ports, preventing PLAN ships from launching assaults on Taiwan. He also stated that Taiwanese submarines can lay in wait and ambush Chinese warships and submarines trying to navigate key maritime routes.
When asked whether the 2027 timeline for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is realistic, Chen said that the PLA has recently suffered serious setbacks, such as U.S. export bans on exports of advanced semiconductors to China and the economic impact of the pandemic, that will probably result in delays to the timeline.
Shen said that although 2027 is significant in that it could serve as a deadline for China’s leader Xi Jinping (???) to show progress on annexing Taiwan, he said that there are three conditions that are more important than a date when it comes to triggering a Chinese invasion. According to Shen, the first circumstance would be if the U.S. clearly abandoned its policy of intervening to defend Taiwan if China attacked.
Second, Shen said that if PLA becomes overconfident and believes that when invading Taiwan it could deter U.S. forces from intervening or decisively defeat them if they did come to Taiwan’s aid. A third possibility is if Beijing perceives Taiwan’s defensive capabilities to have diminished and its people’s will to fight weakened.
Regarding the possibility of a blockade of Taiwan, Shen said that Taiwan only has about two weeks’ worth of liquified natural gas (LNG) in storage for emergencies. Therefore, he said that it is important that Taiwan increases its stockpiles, expands the number of global suppliers, and strengthens its supply of green and nuclear energy.
However, Shen argued that China will have a difficult time maintaining a full blockade and Taiwan can use its submarines, surface warships, and aircraft to disrupt the blockade. He also pointed out that if such a blockade was implemented, it would choke major shipping lanes for large regional economies such as South Korea and Japan, which would lead to pressure from those countries to end the blockade and prompt them to aid Taiwan in breaking it.
1. What is your response to reports that China was sending civilian ferries across from Taiwan to conduct amphibious landings last week?
Yes. We can see recently these past two weeks the PLA organized a big exercise opposite the Taiwan Strait. And then you also can see some private or civilian ferries during that exercise. These ferries belong to the Bohai group.
Why did the PLA use these civilian ferries to join that exercise? You can see that right now the PLA, their navy does not have enough amphibious ships. For example, they don’t have enough Type 071, Type 073, and Type 075 amphibious landing ships.
So they need to use and organize or mobilize these civilian ferries to join the exercise. But the trouble is, we can see the civilian ferries don’t have enough weapon systems and then they are big ships, although they can bring around one battalion, maybe the army, maybe marine corps, and join in on the landing action.
But this ship is very weak at sea because our anti-ship missiles from F-16, from naval ships, from even from submarines can easily destroy this civilian ferry. So if one civilian ferry is destroyed, it means that more than 700 personnel would also be killed.
So you can see, because they don’t have enough amphibious landing ships, they organized and mobilized the civilian ferries.
Of course, every country will do that because if you want to cross the Taiwan Strait to reach Taiwan and some of the so-called Red Beaches, China’s PLA needs more soldiers to land because in Taiwan we have more than 200,000 men. Then the PLA needs to organize more than 70,000 personnel, marine corps, and army and then launch an amphibious landing. And only then would it have a possibility of success.
2. Why did China send 103 aircraft during talks between Wang Yi and Jake Sullivan in Malta?
Yes, you can see, I think that Wang Yi and Sullivan are talking about how to increase the interaction between China and the United States. I don’t think it was related to what they were talking about or that China was very angry about the result of talks on the Taiwan Strait issue.
I don’t think they have a direct relation between Wang Yi and Sullivan’s conversation and the Taiwan situation. I think the Taiwan situation is because I just mentioned before that recently the PLAN had a big exercise and of course PLA Air Force (PLAAF) needs to organize a big exercise to echo the PLAN’s exercise so you can see that they organize more than 100 airplanes including drones, including reconnaissance airplanes, fighters, bombers, air tankers at the center.
And we can find that one PLA officer mentioned in the newspaper there is a typical operational-level campaign, air campaign. So you can see it just simulated that if one day the PLA wants to invade Taiwan, what kind or what type of PLA air forces will take action in the Taiwan Strait.
Were these exercises something that was planned in advance and probably were not related to those talks?
Then I think it was just an air campaign plan exercise. They try to use it because you know, when the military takes real action, you first need to have the plan, and how to handle and how to make this plan a reality is very important.
So you need to have an exercise to try to practice to try to make a plan to be a reaction and win the campaign. So not only this year, we can see that before this year, maybe several years ago, China already sent their fighters, their airplanes, across the median line and included Southwest ADIZ (air defense identification zone) its all two meanings.
The first one is no more training. And then I practiced and if someday I invade Taiwan, how the PLAAF will take action.
The second one is I use this normal training. I exaggerate the fighting action or fighting result or fighting effect and make some recognition operation or implication operation.
China will use its propaganda system to exaggerate its effect to try to scare Taiwanese people.
3. How do you see military ties between Taiwan and India increasing in the future?
Yeah, this is a very interesting question because rarely people will ask about Taiwan’s relations with India regarding security. Most people ask about economic cultural, and trade relations between Taiwan and India because I’ve been to India more than 10 times and then I’m a visiting professor at the India RRU (Rashtriya Raksha University) in Gujarat State.
So I really understand Taiwan and India relations, especially in the security area. I see three reasons that Taiwan and India’s security relations are developing.
First, both Taiwan and India have a common enemy, China, and then Taiwan is in the east and India is in the west. So if Taiwan and India take strong action against China, it will force China to face two fronts.
If the United States and Japan support Taiwan, I think each side’s pressure will be stronger and bigger.
You can see that an American general once said that if China invaded Taiwan, maybe India could resist, and organize some action on the West. So the thinking is, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
Because India and Taiwan have a common enemy security cooperation is a better way for India and Taiwan to counter China.
The second point is that right now we can see under the leadership of the United States the democratic world is trying to organize an alliance, a democracy alliance. You can see also India joined the Quad and then the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom also have AUKUS.
Right now, the United States, Japan, and Korea are also organizing an alliance in Northeast Asia. India doesn’t want the Quad to form an alliance because India has a tradition of non-alignment but it is in India’s interest if the democracy alliance becomes stronger, it can have some deterrent effect on China, not to invade Taiwan or not make trouble in the East China Sea and the South China Sea and even China-India border.
So it’s good for India to join the democracy alliance because of the China factor, Taiwan cannot join this collective security region. But if Taiwan and India because of like minds and shared values can stand together to counter China I think is beneficial to both countries.
The third one is Taiwan can provide some goods or interests to India that another country cannot provide. For example, if India tries to understand the PLA, maybe India would research English literature to know or to understand the PLA or China.
Because in Taiwan, we have learned and studied about China and PLA for a long time and we have some achievements in PLA studies.
Right now we have some think tank exchanges about the PLA research. So if Taiwan can share some PLA research with India, it will enable India to know more about the PLA and know how to deter and defend against it.
The last point is that the Confucius Institute is withdrawing from many countries. If the Indian government or military tries to learn or study Mandarin, right now, they cannot send their officials to Mainland China to learn.
But if they stay in India, only Indians are teaching Indian Mandarin. So Taiwan and India can increase cooperation in Mandarin teaching.
It has already started because National Tsinghua University is sending more than 20 teachers to India to teach them Mandarin. But if Taiwan can send more teachers, they can teach them Mandarin or military Mandarin or some PLA course I think it’s good and helpful for India.
4. Does the launch of Taiwan’s new indigenous submarine change China’s calculations for a possible invasion?
Yeah, I think it’s very difficult for Taiwan to develop our own IDS (Indigenous Defense Submarine), our own submarine. So it’s a big achievement for us to enhance our underwater capability. I don’t think only one submarine can deter China from invading Taiwan, but I think it’s a symbolic achievement for Taiwan.
It means that we already can build our own submarines and during wartime, we can make more submarines to defend against a China invasion. But the second point is because, you know, we already have four submarines, two only for training and two can join the operations. Right now we have three.
China’s military strategy for Taiwan is composed of two parts. One is A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) and try to not let the United States and Japanese militaries intervene in the Taiwan Strait, A2/AD.
The second part of its strategy is an amphibious landing or occupying the offshore islands and then an amphibious landing on the Taiwan home island.
The submarine has some capabilities to deter these strategies. The first one is to help United States and Japanese submarines and navies attack the PLA’s aircraft carriers.
The second is that the submarine can also place some sea mines along the ports of China and prevent their ships from leaving port to invade Taiwan.
The third one is along the SLOC (sea lines of communication) our submarine can stay on the sea bed and ambush.
If a Chinese navy ship crosses into that area, our submarine can ambush that ship. So a submarine is very important. It can take some offensive action.
It also can conduct some asymmetric operations for us. So it’s very important to us, but only one is not enough.
I hope that if the United States or the United Kingdom can help us make another seven submarines and complete them quickly. I think it’s better for us.
5. There’s been a lot of talk about China invading and 2027. Do you think that’s a realistic timeline for the PLA?
Okay. You know, that timeline is from Admiral Davidson. Admiral Davidson, in hearings in Congress, said in 2021, after six years, the PLA will have the capability to invade Taiwan. So that’s the origin of the timeline of 2027.
But what you need to be aware of is after 2021 the United States imposed technology sanctions on China and then because of COVID-19 and China’s economic decline. So I think that 2027 will be more delayed and China’s military capabilities will be more delayed than Admiral Davidson said.
And also because this timing is very important for Xi Jinping and and PLA. You know that 2027 is the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the PLA. So it has a symbolic meaning for the PLA.
If the PLA can invade and occupy Taiwan before 2027 because over the course of its 100 history, this would be a big achievement.
The second point is that you can see that in the 20th Party Congress, Xi Jinping did not nominate his successor. It means that Xi Jinping will try to move to a fourth term and a party congress will be organized in 2027.
So if Xi Jinping tries to continue to remain in power before 2027, he needs a big achievement to persuade his partners and his party to let him have a fourth term. So he will try to unify Taiwan before 2027 or have another big achievement, maybe “one country, two systems” is already a success in Taiwan.
Or maybe if Taiwan does not obey and does not not accept his political preconditions, maybe Xi Jinping will use force. He may use the military to force Taiwan to accept those conditions, but Taiwan if does consent, maybe they will organize a military action to force Taiwan to accept them.
So that is the rationale for the timeframe. But for me, I don’t think that the timing 2026-2027 is not important.
That is, the condition is more important than timing. Three conditions will invoke China to invade Taiwan.
The first one is if the United States abandons its policy to intervene, to protect, to defend Taiwan, maybe China will invade Taiwan.
The second is the PLA becoming overconfident, it thinks. Okay, if I invade Taiwan I will defeat the United States or make the United States afraid of the PLA and not intervene in the Taiwan Strait, and then maybe PLA will invade Taiwan.
The last one is if the PLA or China sees Taiwan’s defense capability as very weak and even people’s way of fighting is very weak. And then maybe we’ll see China’s PLA invade Taiwan because I think they can close this war or this conflict in a short time.
Thus preventing the world or the United States from acting in time to intervene in this conflict.
6. Do you see any other possible scenarios such as a blockade or an invasion of a smaller island?
Yeah. Every action has a political objective. Why would you choose to blockade Taiwan? What is your objective?
If China’s objective is to try to blockade Taiwan in order to make Taiwan accept political preconditions or force Taiwan to talk with China about unification, I don’t think Taiwan will accept this. So Taiwan will take some military actions to counter the blockade.
Of course, right now all of Taiwan’s LNG is imported from outside. Right now we have the so-called security storage maybe 10 days or 14 days.
If China blockades Taiwan we could maybe have some problems.
But we need to increase some different sources, maybe from Australia, from another country, and then we can ask the United States and Australia to make a safe channel to import that LNG. Of course, you can see right now we have different power sources, we have wind power, hydropower, and even nuclear power if we can restart it, it can be used.
Maybe under such conditions even without LNG, we can maintain our power to continue to operate. And then, of course, we also can use our submarines, our aircraft, and our naval ships to resist the blockade.
However, it is very difficult for the PLA to blockade Taiwan because it needs to send many ships and airplanes to surround Taiwan. And then how to continue to maintain the blockade is the first question.
The second question is, if you prepare to blockade Taiwan, it means then you also blockade the channel, the so-called lifeline of Japan and Korea. If you blockade Taiwan for one month, it means that Japan and Korea also cannot import many things from overseas, and then the regional countries will protest or help Taiwan.
But if you impose a blockade before the war, you blockade Taiwan, of course, we can use our military system to destroy, to attack you. That’s another scenario.
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