HomeGlobal Defence UpdatesPakistan Has 170 Nuclear Warheads, May Increase It To 200 By 2025:...

Pakistan Has 170 Nuclear Warheads, May Increase It To 200 By 2025: Nuclear Notebook




Missiles

Pakistan has a stockpile of approximately 170 nuclear warheads which could realistically grow to around 200 by 2025 at the current growth rate, according to top American atomic scientists. “We estimate that Pakistan now has a nuclear weapons stockpile of approximately 170 warheads.

The US Defence Intelligence Agency projected in 1999 that Pakistan would have 60 to 80 warheads by 2020, but several new weapon systems have been fielded and developed since then, which leads us to a higher estimate,” the Nuclear Notebook column published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on September 11 said.

The Nuclear Notebook is researched and written by the staff of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information’s Project Director Hans M Kristensen, senior research fellow Matt Korda, and research associate Eliana Johns. The Nuclear Notebook column has been published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists since 1987.

“Our estimate comes with considerable uncertainty because neither Pakistan nor other countries publish much information about the Pakistani nuclear arsenal,” the scientists said.

Given the absence of reliable data originating from within Pakistan, the Nuclear Notebook used a combination of open-source materials to arrive at their estimates and carry out the analysis. Their sources included state-originating data (e.g. government statements, declassified documents, budgetary information, military parades, and treaty disclosure data) and non-state-originating data (e.g. media reports, think tank analysis, and industry publications). Interestingly, they also extensively used commercial satellite imagery.

“Each one of these sources provides different and limited information that is subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. We cross-checked each data point by using multiple sources and supplementing them with private conversations with officials whenever possible,” the trio said. With several new delivery systems in development, four plutonium production reactors, and an expanding uranium enrichment infrastructure, Pakistan’s stockpile has the potential to increase further over the next several years, the Nuclear Notebook said. “The size of this projected increase will depend on several factors, including how many nuclear-capable launchers Pakistan plans to deploy, how its nuclear strategy evolves, and how much the Indian nuclear arsenal grows. We estimate that the country’s stockpile could potentially grow to around 200 warheads by the late 2020s, at the current growth rate,” the scientists said.

“But unless India significantly expands its arsenal or further builds up its conventional forces, it seems reasonable to expect that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal will not continue to grow indefinitely but might begin to level off as its current weapons programmes are completed,” they added.

Even when the document listed fissile materials production and inventory from available sources in the public domain, the scientists put out a disclaimer: “Calculating stockpile size based solely on fissile material inventory is an incomplete methodology that tends to overestimate the likely number of nuclear warheads.”

“We estimate that Pakistan currently is producing sufficient fissile material to build 14 to 27 new warheads per year, although we estimate that the actual warhead increase in the stockpile probably averages around 5 to 10 warheads per year,” they further said.

Dwelling in detail on the subject of nuclear-capable aircraft and air-delivered weapons, the Nuclear Notebook listed 36 Mirage III/IV and JF17s. Similarly, it also mentioned details about six currently operational nuclear-capable, solid-fuel, road-mobile ballistic missile systems under the land-based ballistic missiles category – the short-range Abdali (Hatf-2), Ghaznavi (Hatf-3), Shaheen-I/A (Hatf-4), and Nasr (Hatf-9), and the medium-range Ghauri (Hatf-5) and Shaheen-II (Hatf-6).

Commenting on the 2017’s medium-range ballistic missile called Ababeel that Pakistan said is “capable of carrying multiple warheads, using multiple independent re-entry vehicle (MIRV) technology,” the Nuclear Notebook observed, “Development of multiple-warhead capability appears to be intended as a countermeasure against India’s planned ballistic missile defence system. Its status remains unclear as of July 2023.”

Pointing out that the total number and location of Pakistan’s nuclear-capable missile bases and facilities remains unknown, the document said, “Analysis of commercial satellite imagery suggests that Pakistan maintains at least five missile bases that could serve a role in Pakistan’s nuclear forces.” It then went on to list the bases with its coordinates and other details, including satellite images: Akro Garrison, Gujranwala Garrison, Khuzdar Garrison, Pano Aqil Garrison and Sargodha Garrison.

Stating how Pakistan’s family of ground- and sea-launched cruise missiles is “undergoing significant development with work on several types and modifications,” the Nuclear Notebook listed details of Babur (Hatf-7) with Babur 1 and Babur 1A, Babur 2 or Babur 1B GLCM, Babur 3 and an under-development variant known as the Harbah.

Admitting that little is publicly known about warhead production, the scientists said: “But experts have suspected for many years that the Pakistan Ordnance Factories near Wah, northwest of Islamabad, serve a role. One of the Wah factories is located near a unique facility with six earth-covered bunkers (igloos) inside a multi-layered safety perimeter with armed guards.”







Source by [author_name]
#Pakistan #Nuclear #Warheads #Increase #Nuclear #Notebook

RELATED ARTICLES

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Aatmanirbhar Bharat

All

Swadeshi Empresa’s Fire Fighting Bots Gets Export Inquiries

Fire fighting bot developed by Swadeshi Empresa for the Indian Navy under the iDEX SPRINT initiative was handed over to INS Vikrant for user...

HAL’s trainer aircraft for pilots yet to get full certification after 6 months

Six months after the defence ministry signed a contract to procure HTT-40 basic trainer aircraft for the Indian Air Force, the aircraft is yet...

AMCA 5th Generation Stealth Fighter Updates

Most Popular

Recent Comments

Archive Months

Miscellanous

ISRO successfully launches SSLV’s second developmental flight with three satellites from Sriharikota

Source : The HinduSSLV-D2 took off precisely at 09:18 hours IST on February 10, 2023 from the first launch pad at the Satish Dhawan...

Skepticism towards China bringing India and EU closer

Source : The SentinelSkepticism towards China bringing India and EU closerColombo: The economic ties between India and the EU are being strengthened based on new...

Raising air power violation is China’s mind game. India’s challenge is to call the bluff

Source : The PrintChinese People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) Sukhoi Su-30MKK (Above) and Indian Air Force Sukhoi Su-30MKI (Bottom)Concerns of air power violations...

Indian Army Northern Commander concludes 5-day tour of Ladakh

Source : Press Trust of India (PTI)Northern Army Commander Lieutenant General Upendra Dwivedi at the induction ceremony of Made in India Infantry Combat vehicles,...

IAF to get 1st Tejas Mk1A in February 2024 : HAL gets enquiries for LCH Prachand from various countries including Argentina & Egypt

Source : Indian Defence Updates (IDU)LCA Tejas Mk1A (Left) and LCH Prachand (Right)The Chairman of Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) has said that the Tejas...

2 terrorists killed in Jammu and Kashmir’s Baramulla, 2nd encounter in 24 hours

Source : India Today2 terrorists killed in Jammu and Kashmir's Baramulla, 2nd encounter in 24 hours Two terrorists were killed after an encounter broke out...

SIA raids: SIA conducts searches to bust terror modules in J-K’s Reasi

The Special Investigation Agency (SIA) carried out searches in the upper reaches of Jammu and Kashmir's Reasi following information about desperate attempts by terrorists...

Feasibility study of the propulsion system for Indian Navy Landing Platform Docks (LPD) completed

Source : IgMp BureauModle of the LPD on offer to the Indian Navy by L&T and Spanish Company Navantia (Image Source: SP's Naval Forces) The...

Indian Navy wanted TEDBF to be a 5th Generation Fighter well within 2034 which was not possible

Source : Indian Defence AnalysisTwin Engine Deck Based Fighter (TEDBF) CGI by Satwik SadhukhanThe Air Staff Requirements for the LCA’s Naval version were first...

C-130J 50% more cheaper than Airbus A-400M; Embraer KC-390 also can be a good option for IAF’s MTA : Defence Analysts

Source : Indian Defence Updates (IDU)An US Air Force C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraftAt a time when the Indian Air Force has launched a...

Japan intercepts Chinese Y-9DZ electronic-warfare aircraft over Pacific Ocean

Source : Asian News International (ANI)Japan intercepts Chinese Y-9DZ electronic-warfare aircraft over Pacific OceanTokyo: Japan's Air Self-Defence Force (JASDF) on Thursday intercepted PLA's Y-9DZ electronic-warfare...

India to seek financial quotes for Rafale M from France

New Delhi: India will soon send a Letter of Request (LOR) to the French government seeking financial quotes for the procurement of 26 Rafale Marine fighter...

‘Don’t blame others for your own failures…,’ Taliban to Pakistan on Peshawar mosque blast

Source : Asian News International (ANI)The Taliban’s Acting Foreign Minister Amir Muttaqi called on Pakistan to investigate the Peshawar attack rather than blame neighbouring...

India, Oman’s 13-day Joint Military Excerise ‘Al Najah’ concludes in Rajasthan

Source : RepublicIndia, Oman concludes 13-day long Joint Military Exercise 'Al Najah' in Rajasthan (Image: Twitter/@SWComd_IA)The fourth edition of the Indo-Oman joint military exercise--...
Visits

Adblock Detected

Please consider supporting us by disabling your ad blocker

Refresh Page
error: Content is protected !!
%d bloggers like this: